Prin privatizare si austeritate spre viitor privim

30 Nov

Va mai amintiti de elogiile aduse privatizarii sistemului bancar romanesc? Vor veni banci straine, cu adevarat capitaliste, care vor prelua bancile statului roman cel rau si corupt. Vor aduce expertiza, vor aduce capital, vor aduce garantia bancilor mama.

Iata o veste interesanta: Azi Standard and Poors noteeza titlurile la stat ale Romaniei la categoria “junk.” Motivul principal? Sectorul nostru bancar are o felie prea mare in proprietatea unor banci grecesti si austriece. Oops, deci privatizarea cu banci straine este o curea de transmisie spre economiiile lor de bastina, asupra carora statul roman nu are nici un control. Uite ce frumos zice agentia:

“Foreign institutions own 85 per cent of total banking sector assets. Austrian banks dominate, holding around 40 per cent of total market share, while Greek banks’ subsidiaries account for 24 per cent of capital and 14 per cent of the assets of the banking sector. These subsidiaries are autonomous from their parents, which we believe will likely limit spillover effects if confidence in the Greek banking sector weakens further. In our view, however, there is a risk that if foreign parent banks run into difficulties they may significantly reduce cross-border exposure to their subsidiaries, thereby reducing credit activity.”

Ce ne mai spune S&P? Ca retrogradarea datoriei Romaniei este si rezultatul unei schimbari de metodologie. Schimbarea spune ca daca o tara are mai mult de jumatate din datorie emisa in alte moneda decat a sa, trebuie facuta automat o retrogradare. Romania avand 60 la suta din datorie in euro, deci regula se aplica. Asa, peste noapte, ca doar S&P nu este supusa oricum nici unui control.

Pai nu era vorba ca ne-a laudat FMI-ul pentru austeritatea-model? Ca nu avem datorie mare, ca occidentalii cei putreziti de statul bunastarii? Nu pare a impresiona prea mult. Sperante a mai bine? Da, prin mai multa austeritate.

“Conversely, if the government continues to push through with structural measures to improve competitiveness and potential growth, while building a sustained track record of fiscal prudence, we could raise the ratings.”

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