BCE, Germania si geopolitica tratatelor UE

1 Dec

Devine tot mai clar ca BCE nu este o institutie cu o filosofie tehnocratica mioapa, obsedata sa isi apere un mandat redus, ci un actor politic cu strategii subtile de extindere a propriei jusrisdictii. Declaratia de azi a lui Mario Draghi sugereaza ca BCE este pregatita sa intervina masiv pentru a nu lasa dobanda pe titlurile periferiei sa creasca peste 5 la suta in schimbul croirii camasii de forta fiscale dorita de Germania si indragita de invesiotorii in titluri de stat. Consecinta va fi impunerea modelului macroeconomic german asupra intregii zone euro, cu sanctiuni automate prin institutiile UE. Iata citatul in original:

“A new fiscal compact would be the most important signal from euro area governments for embarking on a path of comprehensive deepening of economic integration. It would also present a clear trajectory for the future evolution of the euro area, thus framing expectations.”

Perspectiva acestui targ incanta pietele, care deja au redus azi dobanda pe titlurile spaniole pentru a semnaliza ca aproba pozitia BCE/Germania. Uite ce zice un jucator mare pe piata londoneza (Barclays Capital) despre miscarea asta

“Subject to a firm agreement on a new fiscal pact at next Friday’s EU summit, and clearly defined plans by the new Italian government to achieve a balanced budget by 2013 (due to be announced next Monday), then the ECB is ready to step up significantly its degree of bond purchases … However, it is by no means certain that the EU Summit will be able to achieve this level of commitment: while we expect developments along these lines, there is considerable uncertainty about the precise outcome.”

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