Cum sa reducem datoria publica punand la plata sectorul financiar

13 Dec

Cum poate fi redusa datoria unui stat?

Sunt patru optiuni: crestere, austeritate, faliment si inflatie. A cincea optiune este tinuta mai la umbra si se numeste represiune fiscala. Carmen Reinhart, economist la Universitatea Maryland discuta aceasta optiune care ar pune sectorul financiar la plata. Lucrarea pentru BIS (atasata aicireinhart financial repression ).

In sistemul Bretton Woods, dominant pana in anii 70, sistemul financiar era nu numai sever reglementat si, prin urmare, imun la crize, dar era fortat sa contribuie la reducerea datoriilor statelor prin rate mai ridicate, dar totusi moderate, ale inflatiei, credite directionate de stat, si rate ale dobanzii controlate. Suma acestor politici este de fapt un impozit impus sectorului financiar pentru a plati pentru reducerea datoriei statului. In SUA si Anglia postbelica represiunea financiara urca pana la 3 la suta din PIB si a ajutat aceste tari sa reduca cheluielile publice masive facute in timpul razboiului. Departe de a fi epuizata, aceasta strategie este inca folosita in economiile emergente care se pregatesc sa beneficieze de sinuciderea prin austeritate a “Occidentului.”

Iata o baterie de masuri odata perfect respectabile in sistemul capitalist de dinainte de neoliberalism si a caror invocare in contextul actual suna, evident, “socialist.”

Explicit or indirect caps or ceilings on interest rates, particularly (but not exclusively) those on government debts.

Creation and maintenance of a captive domestic audience that facilitated directed credit to the government. This was achieved through multiple layers of regulations from very blunt to more subtle measures. (a) Capital account restrictions and exchange controls orchestrated a “forced home bias” in the portfolio of financial institutions and individuals under the Bretton Woods arrangements. (b) High reserve requirements (usually non-remunerated) as a tax levy on banks (see Brock, 1989, for an insightful international comparison). Among more subtle measures, (c) “prudential” regulatory measures requiring that institutions (almost exclusively domestic ones) hold government debts in their portfolios (pension funds have historically been a primary target). (d) Transaction taxes on equities (see Campbell and Froot, 1994) also act to direct investors toward government (and other) types of debt instruments. And (e) prohibitions on gold transactions.

Mai punem si

(a) direct ownership (e.g., in China or India) of banks or extensive management of banks and other financial institutions (e.g., in Japan) and (b) restricting entry into the financial industry and directing credit to certain industries (see Beim and Calomiris, 2000).

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