Moody’s da o copita “pactului fiscal”

19 Dec

Marele pact fiscal inregistreaza primele reactii din partea “pietelor” pe care vroia sa le “calmeze” (frumoasa antropomorfizarea unui concept care de fapt nu se vrea despachetat). Primul mesaj de amploare este de la Moody’s. Care da scurt din copita:

“Following the EU Summit on 9-10 December, Fitch has concluded that a ‘comprehensive solution’ to the eurozone crisis is technically and politically beyond reach…”

Mai departe, Fitch ne anunta ca de retrogradare nu se pregatesc doar suspectii obisnuiti (Italia, Spania, Irlanda) ci si pana acum solidele Belgia si Slovenia, cu Franta in linia de mira. Care o fi motivul asprei agentii? Lipsa de austeritate? Nici pe departe. Este vorba de esenta “pactului fiscal: ”refuzul BCE de a interveni pe post de creditor de ultima instant pentru guvernele zonei euro.

“Of particular concern is the absence of a credible financial backstop. In Fitch’s opinion this requires more active and explicit commitment from the ECB to mitigate the risk of self-fulfilling liquidity crises for potentially illiquid but solvent Euro Area Member States (EAMS).”

Si daca cineva se mai indoieste ca Fitch nu a gasit destula austeritate la Madrid, Dublin etc, raportul o trage apasat, sa inteleaga tot omul:

“Fitch recognises that the policy authorities in all of the countries with sovereign ratings subject to review have embarked upon significant fiscal consolidation and structural reform and these efforts will be taken into account in the review. However, the systemic nature of the eurozone crisis is having a profoundly adverse effect on economic and financial stability across the region and for some EAMS poses near-term risks that are beginning to dominate the sovereign-specific risk fundamentals.”

Dar ce-o fi avand Fitch cu francezul? intreba Moromete. Raspuns: “pactul fiscal” se beazeaza pe fondul de salvare al euro la care Franta este unul din actionarii principali si care, daca ar fi folosit, ar trage in jos credibilitatea Frantei.

“Relative to non-Euro Area ‘AAA’ peers, notably the US (‘AAA’/Negative Outlook) and the UK (‘AAA’/Stable Outlook), the risk from contingent liabilities from an intensification of the Eurozone crisis is greater in light of its commitments to the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and the European Stability Mechanism (ESM).”


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