FMI si austeritatea fara sfarsit

23 Dec

Traim zile demne de o drama dadaista. Elitele politice europene adopta politici sociale brutale pebtru restaurarea încrederii pieţelor financiare în economiile Zonei Euro. Problema e ca pietele nu par sa aiba preferintele explicite atribuite lor de politicieni. O spune economistul-sef al FMI, Olivier Blanchard intr-o interventie “de sarbatori,” in care sustine ca pietele reactioneaza pozitiv cand aud de adoptarea unor pachete de austeritate dar apoi se panicheaza observand ca austeritatea reduce sansele de crestere economica si creste sansele de neplata a titlurilor de stat. Un fel de copil retardat. Iata citatul integral”

“Financial investors are schizophrenic about fiscal consolidation and growth.

They react positively to news of fiscal consolidation, but then react negatively later, when consolidation leads to lower growth—which it often does. Some preliminary estimates that the IMF is working on suggest that it does not take large multipliers for the joint effects of fiscal consolidation and the implied lower growth to lead in the end to an increase, not a decrease, in risk spreads on government bonds. To the extent that governments feel they have to respond to markets, they may be induced to consolidate too fast, even from the narrow point of view of debt sustainability.”

Dupa care dl. Blanchard intra in forma lui de schizofrenie, panicat oarecum de propria descoperire, sustinand ca, totusi, austeritatea trebuie sa continue.

“I should be clear here. Substantial fiscal consolidation is needed, and debt levels must decrease. But it should be, in the words of Angela Merkel, a marathon rather than a sprint. It will take more than two decades to return to prudent levels of debt. There is a proverb that actually applies here too: “slow and steady wins the race.”

Sursa: http://blog-imfdirect.imf.org/2011/12/21/2011-in-review-four-hard-truths/

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