Aside 4 Apr

Ann Joyce:
Strengths/Weaknesses: There is a plethora of literature related to democratic transitions and levels of violence. Numerous scholars have analyzed case studies from around the world making their own predictions on the causes of democratic transitions and the factors that lead to violence. While there is plenty of research related to Turkey and Algeria, there is a limited amount related to Egypt. Due to the consisted development of the situation in Egypt, scholars have mostly written theoretical articles about the potential outcomes that could occur.

Limitations: This paper cannot analyze whether or not a democratic transition is successful. Similarly, the focus on Egypt will need to be narrowed to a time frame between the start of the Arab Spring and potentially the 2nd round of elections occurring in the next few months. Due to the evolving situation in Egypt, this paper needs to be focused on a historical time frame, instead of the current state.

Approach: The focus of this paper will be on the factors present during democratic transition and the effect that is had on the level of violence. Scholars have theorized about the necessary factors needed to ensure limited violence. These theories will be analyzed in the frame of Algeria, Turkey, and Egypt. 

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Aside

Cand austeritatea musca mana celui care a hranit-o

29 Nov

Centrul de greutate al Europei trece zilele acestea prin confruntarea cu spectrul prabusirii monedei unice si al unei recesiuni care se poate converti usor intr-o mare criza economica. Pana si tari cu greutate din zona euro au inceput sa fie lovite de primele raiduri speculative, in timp ce intreaga Europa mediteraneeana traieste primele luni ale echivalentului politic al starii de urgenta. Keynesian fiind, nu ma mir deloc ca austeritatea lansata mai peste tot in Europa si batuta in cuie de Germania ne duce spre dezastru economic si politic.

Si nu e vorba aici de vechea obiectie neoliberala ca austeritatea nu a fost bine executata. O stire interesanta pe acest front vine din biroul lui David Cameron, unde se recunoaste ca in ciuda unui program model de consolidare fiscala, Marea Britanie se confrunta nu numai cu o crestere amarata, ci si cu umflarea deficitului structural, lucru ce va duce la taieri bugetare suplimentare.[1] Adica exact ceea ce keynesienii si alti economisti heterodocsi spun de ani de zile: cand sectorul privat isi reduce investitiile si consumul, daca statul (sau pietele externe) nu continua sa compenseaze reducerile pana in punctual in care sectorul privat isi revine, unul din rezultatele probabile este reducerea generala a activitatii economice si deci venituri bugetare tot mai scazute care duc la cresterea deficitului bugetar.

De suferinta sociala antrenata de aceasta ofensiva politica a macroeconomiei neoclasice nu mai vorbesc, ca o face deja pana si FMI-ul. [2] Vorba regretatului lidei taranist Ion Diaconescu, spusa intr-o reflectie onesta despre terapia de (semi) soc a guvernului Ciorbea: “I-am chinuit pe oameni degeaba.”

 

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